Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 05/09, 02:30

Prediction: Tecnico Universitario vs LDU Quito

Team pages: Tecnico Universitario · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Tecnico Universitario0.88

LDU Quito1.4

1X2

23% 29% 48%

Tecnico Universitario Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tecnico Universitario 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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LDU Quito 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tecnico Universitario 0–6 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito2-1Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario1-3LDU Quito
LDU Quito3-2Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario1-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito1-0Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario0-2LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tecnico Universitario 1408 · LDU Quito 1541

	Tecnico Universitario	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	22%	30%	48%
Market	23%	28%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1408 vs 1541).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tecnico Universitario	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.6	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.30

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +5’	4.00	3.30	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:47	3.99	3.19	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tecnico Universitario 0–0–6 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-1 HT 0-1	Tecnico Universitario
28/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	1-3 HT 0-2	LDU Quito
31/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	3-2 HT 2-2	Tecnico Universitario
19/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	1-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito
28/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-0 HT 1-0	Tecnico Universitario
09/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	0-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	28	22	2	4	67	30	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	27	14	5	8	31	26	47
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
6	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
7	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
8	Club Atletico Libertad	27	10	7	10	29	30	37
9	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
10	Leones FC	27	9	8	10	29	30	35
11	Emelec	27	9	8	10	23	32	35
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	27	8	6	13	31	41	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tecnico Universitario	LDU Quito
Delfin SC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Guayaquil City	2-3 L	1-2 L
Emelec	1-2 L	2-0 W
Mushuc Runa	0-3 L	0-0 D
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-5 L	0-1 L
Manta FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Independiente del Valle	0-3 L	0-2 L
SD Aucas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tecnico Universitario

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
29/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	2-3	–	–	L
16/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
10/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
01/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	0-5	7	5	L
26/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
22/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
19/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	10	9	L
15/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

LDU Quito

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tecnico Universitario vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LDU Quito win (48%). Probabilities: Tecnico Universitario 23%, draw 29%, LDU Quito 48%.

How many goals are expected in Tecnico Universitario vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Tecnico Universitario 0.88 · LDU Quito 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tecnico Universitario vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.