Football · Italy Serie A · 06/09, 20:45

Prediction: Juventus vs AC Milan

Team pages: Juventus · AC Milan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Juventus1.11

AC Milan0.79

1X2

43% 31% 26%

Juventus Draw AC Milan

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Juventus 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWLDWW

AC Milan 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Juventus 1–4–1 AC Milan (6 last)

AC Milan0-0Juventus
Juventus0-0AC Milan
Juventus2-0AC Milan
Juventus1-2AC Milan
AC Milan0-0Juventus
Juventus0-0AC Milan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juventus 1594 · AC Milan 1513

	Juventus	Draw	AC Milan
Our model	41%	34%	25%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juventus (rating 1594 vs 1513).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juventus	AC Milan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.5	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.1	0.9 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.22
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.63 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +5’	2.10	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +2’	2.22	3.21	3.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventus 1–4–1 AC Milan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	0-0 HT 0-0	Juventus
05/10/25 Italy Serie A	Juventus	0-0 HT 0-0	AC Milan
18/01/25 Italy Serie A	Juventus	2-0 HT 0-0	AC Milan
03/01/25 Italy Super Cup	Juventus	1-2 HT 1-0	AC Milan
23/11/24 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	0-0 HT 0-0	Juventus
27/04/24 Italy Serie A	Juventus	0-0 HT 0-0	AC Milan

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AC Milan	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Juventus	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Udinese	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
4	Como	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Roma	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
6	Inter Milan	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
7	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
8	Lecce	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
11	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
11	Lazio	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
13	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
14	Bologna	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Torino	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	Genoa	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Parma	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Monza	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
19	Venezia	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juventus	AC Milan
Torino	2-2 D	2-1 W
Verona	1-1 D	1-0 W
Atalanta	1-0 W	2-3 L
Genoa	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juventus

WWWDDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
23/08	Frosinone Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	12	4	W
24/05	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
17/05	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/05	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
03/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
26/04	AC Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/04	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
11/04	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/04	Genoa Italy Serie A	2-0	2-0	5	5	W

AC Milan

LLWDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/08	Torino Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
24/05	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/05	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
03/05	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
26/04	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/04	Verona Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
11/04	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
06/04	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juventus vs AC Milan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juventus win (43%). Probabilities: Juventus 43%, draw 31%, AC Milan 26%.

How many goals are expected in Juventus vs AC Milan?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Juventus 1.11 · AC Milan 0.79), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Juventus vs AC Milan?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.