Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 22/10, 20:30

Prediction: Vinotinto Ecuador vs Independiente Juniors

Team pages: Vinotinto Ecuador · Independiente Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Vinotinto Ecuador1.43

Independiente Juniors0.81

1X2

51% 28% 21%

Vinotinto Ecuador Draw Independiente Juniors

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vinotinto Ecuador 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWDDL

Independiente Juniors 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Vinotinto Ecuador 3–2–1 Independiente Juniors (6 last)

Independiente Juniors2-3Vinotinto Ecuador
Independiente Juniors2-0Vinotinto Ecuador
Vinotinto Ecuador2-2Independiente Juniors
Vinotinto Ecuador3-2Independiente Juniors
Independiente Juniors1-1Vinotinto Ecuador
Vinotinto Ecuador1-0Independiente Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vinotinto Ecuador 1536 · Independiente Juniors 1522

	Vinotinto Ecuador	Draw	Independiente Juniors
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vinotinto Ecuador: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vinotinto Ecuador	Independiente Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +4’	1.73	3.30	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vinotinto Ecuador 3–2–1 Independiente Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	2-3 HT 1-1	Vinotinto Ecuador
23/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	2-0 HT 0-0	Vinotinto Ecuador
03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	2-2 HT 1-2	Independiente Juniors
30/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	3-2 HT 1-2	Independiente Juniors
11/07/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	1-1 HT 1-0	Vinotinto Ecuador
13/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	1-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Juniors

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico FC Guayaquil	30	14	13	3	37	19	55
2	Independiente Juniors	30	13	11	6	36	24	50
3	Vinotinto Ecuador	30	13	9	8	37	23	48
4	Club 9 de Octubre	30	12	12	6	32	21	48
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	30	10	9	11	23	34	39
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	30	8	12	10	29	34	36

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vinotinto Ecuador	Independiente Juniors
Club 9 de Octubre	0-1 L	1-0 W
CD Cuenca Jrs	1-1 D	2-0 W
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	0-0 D	0-0 D
Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vinotinto Ecuador

DDWWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
07/10	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
02/10	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	3-2	1	8	W
17/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
03/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	4-2	10	6	W
27/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
22/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Independiente Juniors

DDDWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
08/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/10	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
24/09	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	4	8	L
17/09	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
04/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Independiente Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vinotinto Ecuador win (51%). Probabilities: Vinotinto Ecuador 51%, draw 28%, Independiente Juniors 21%.

How many goals are expected in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Independiente Juniors?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Vinotinto Ecuador 1.43 · Independiente Juniors 0.81), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Vinotinto Ecuador vs Independiente Juniors?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.