Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 30/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

JK Trans Narva1.24

JK Tammeka Tartu1.38

1X2

33% 27% 40%

JK Trans Narva Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLDL

JK Tammeka Tartu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 4–2 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Trans Narva3-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu2-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva4-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva4-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1442 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1547

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1442 vs 1547).
H2H favours JK Trans Narva: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 3	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.5	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +4’	2.63	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 4–0–2 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
17/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-0 HT 2-0	JK Trans Narva
09/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	4-1 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
03/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	4-0 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
13/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	1-2 L
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	1-0 W
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-3 L	0-1 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 W	1-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-2 L	0-0 D
JK Nomme Kalju	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva

LLLLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
30/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
20/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
16/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
09/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
01/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
26/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-4	0-7	5	3	L
22/04	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-6	6	7	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

LDLLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
08/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
25/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
18/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
12/04	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	1-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Tammeka Tartu win (40%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 33%, draw 27%, JK Tammeka Tartu 40%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 2.62 goals (JK Trans Narva 1.24 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.