Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Harju JK Laagri1.78

JK Tammeka Tartu1.38

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Harju JK Laagri Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLWW

JK Tammeka Tartu 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 2–1–3 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu2-1Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-0JK Tammeka Tartu
Harju JK Laagri2-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu3-0Harju JK Laagri
JK Tammeka Tartu2-1Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri4-1JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1524 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1578

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1524 vs 1578).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:25 +4’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 2–1–3 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 HT 2-1	Harju JK Laagri
25/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-0 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
22/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-2 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
31/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
13/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
18/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	4-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	1-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 W	1-5 L
FC Kuressaare	2-3 L	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 L	3-1 W
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harju JK Laagri

LLLWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

DWWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harju JK Laagri win (46%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 46%, draw 25%, JK Tammeka Tartu 29%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Harju JK Laagri 1.78 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.