Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 08/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · FC Flora Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

JK Trans Narva1.01

FC Flora Tallinn1.88

1X2

19% 24% 57%

JK Trans Narva Draw FC Flora Tallinn

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLL

FC Flora Tallinn 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 0–1–5 FC Flora Tallinn (6 last)

JK Trans Narva0-3FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-0JK Trans Narva
FC Flora Tallinn6-0JK Trans Narva
FC Flora Tallinn4-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-1FC Flora Tallinn
JK Trans Narva1-2FC Flora Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1443 · FC Flora Tallinn 1514

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1443 vs 1514).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.5	3.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.90

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.86 ★
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.02
2	1.67 → 1.55▼	Pinn 1.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +4’	3.80	3.80	1.67
14:02 +6’	4.50▲	3.90▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +22’	4.88	4.05	1.59
15:03 +5’	4.86▼	4.02▼	1.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 0–1–5 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Flora Tallinn
05/05/26 Estonia Cup	FC Flora Tallinn	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	6-0 HT 2-0	JK Trans Narva
21/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	4-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva
02/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
18/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	FC Flora Tallinn
FC Kuressaare	1-3 L	2-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-2 L	3-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	2-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	2-1 W
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	1-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	2-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva

LLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

FC Flora Tallinn

WWLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn win (57%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 19%, draw 24%, FC Flora Tallinn 57%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model expects 2.89 goals (JK Trans Narva 1.01 · FC Flora Tallinn 1.88), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.