Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 09/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.74

FC Kuressaare0.74

1X2

82% 12% 6%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWWWWW

FC Kuressaare 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWLDW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 6–0 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

FC Kuressaare1-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1FC Kuressaare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1632 · FC Kuressaare 1497

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	86%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1632 vs 1497).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 6-0-0.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 9.1	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.09

X10.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.95

2 (+2.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.09	Bet365 1.09
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +13’	1.09	10.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 6–0–0 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
18/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-3 HT 0-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
01/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
14/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	FC Kuressaare
Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju	3-2 W	0-0 D
JK Trans Narva	4-0 W	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	3-2 W
JK Nomme United	5-0 W	2-3 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

WDLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W

FC Kuressaare

LLLDLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (82%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 82%, draw 12%, FC Kuressaare 6%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 3.48 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.74 · FC Kuressaare 0.74), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.