Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 08/09, 17:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Nomme United

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · JK Nomme United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

JK Nomme Kalju2.55

JK Nomme United1.54

1X2

58% 21% 21%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw JK Nomme United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWLLL

JK Nomme United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 4–2–0 JK Nomme United (6 last)

JK Nomme United1-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju7-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme Kalju3-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-0JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1526 · JK Nomme United 1472

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	JK Nomme United
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1526 vs 1472).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Nomme United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.46
X	4.10 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.64
2	4.50 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.70 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +5’	1.53	4.10	4.50
12:43 +24’	1.53	4.10	4.33▼
14:03 +4’	1.48▼	4.20▲	4.75▲
15:01 +7’	1.42▼	4.33▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +10’	1.50	4.50	5.33
14:18 +50’	1.46▼	4.64▲	5.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 4–2–0 JK Nomme United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-3 HT 1-3	JK Nomme Kalju
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	7-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United
18/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
19/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
28/05/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
17/03/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Nomme United
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	2-3 L	0-5 L
Harju JK Laagri	0-1 L	1-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	0-1 L
JK Trans Narva	2-0 W	1-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	5-1 W	0-1 L
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	3-2 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju

DDWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

JK Nomme United

WLWWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
03/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Nomme United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (58%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 58%, draw 21%, JK Nomme United 21%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Nomme United?

The model expects 4.09 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 2.55 · JK Nomme United 1.54), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Nomme United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.