Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 09/09, 18:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Parnu JK Vaprus1.63

Harju JK Laagri1.46

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLDW

Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 3–2–1 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

Harju JK Laagri1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus0-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-1Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1506 · Harju JK Laagri 1494

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +3’	2.15	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 3–2–1 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
04/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-2 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri
27/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 1-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
25/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri
26/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-1 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
05/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-1 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	Harju JK Laagri
JK Nomme United	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Kuressaare	2-2 D	2-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	1-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1 D	1-2 L
JK Trans Narva	1-3 L	3-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	5-1 W	0-2 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

LWLWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
26/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Harju JK Laagri

LLWWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus win (41%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 41%, draw 26%, Harju JK Laagri 33%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.63 · Harju JK Laagri 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.