Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

FC Flora Tallinn1.67

Paide Linnameeskond1.44

1X2

42% 26% 32%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Paide Linnameeskond 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 3–1–2 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond1-5FC Flora Tallinn
Paide Linnameeskond1-2FC Flora Tallinn
Paide Linnameeskond1-3FC Flora Tallinn
Paide Linnameeskond1-1FC Flora Tallinn
Paide Linnameeskond2-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-2Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1569 · Paide Linnameeskond 1475

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	42%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1569 vs 1475).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 8	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +20’	2.10	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 3–1–2 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Estonia Cup	Paide Linnameeskond	1-5 HT 0-2	FC Flora Tallinn
26/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn
20/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
26/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn
21/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
15/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-2	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	Paide Linnameeskond
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-3 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme United	4-0 W	4-1 W
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 W	1-1 D
Harju JK Laagri	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W
13/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
29/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	10	5	W
16/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
10/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
30/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
26/04	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	10	6	W
22/04	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	6-0	3	7	W
19/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	7	3	L

Paide Linnameeskond

DLLWLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
17/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
31/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
20/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
17/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	2	5	L
10/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
01/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
26/04	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
22/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (42%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 42%, draw 26%, Paide Linnameeskond 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.11 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 1.67 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.