Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 06/09, 13:30

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Paide Linnameeskond1.1

FC Levadia Tallinn2.09

1X2

19% 22% 60%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWDWW

FC Levadia Tallinn 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 1–1–4 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn4-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-2Paide Linnameeskond
FC Levadia Tallinn1-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond0-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1527 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1617

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	19%	21%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1527 vs 1617).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 4-1-1.
High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	5.2 / 9.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.77

2 (-1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:21 +5’	4.75	4.20	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 1–1–4 FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Estonia Cup	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-1 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
17/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 HT 1-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
22/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
22/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
04/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn
11/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 2-0	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme United	4-1 W	5-0 W
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	4-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	2-5 L	2-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	1-1 D
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

DWWDWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
14/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	10	D

FC Levadia Tallinn

WWDLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W
13/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (60%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 19%, draw 22%, FC Levadia Tallinn 60%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 1.1 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.09), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.