Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme United

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · JK Nomme United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Parnu JK Vaprus2.02

JK Nomme United1.85

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw JK Nomme United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLDLLD

JK Nomme United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 3–3 JK Nomme United (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus2-3JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United7-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus7-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United2-1Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1484 · JK Nomme United 1491

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	JK Nomme United
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Nomme United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.2	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +4’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 3–0–3 JK Nomme United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-3 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
14/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	7-1 HT 2-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
12/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Parnu JK Vaprus	7-0 HT 5-0	JK Nomme United
19/10/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
13/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
31/05/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	2-1 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Nomme United
FC Kuressaare	2-2 D	3-2 W
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	2-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	1-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1 D	0-5 L
JK Trans Narva	1-3 L	1-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	5-1 W	0-1 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

DLWLWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
26/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
13/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

JK Nomme United

LWLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
03/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
17/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus win (41%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 41%, draw 24%, JK Nomme United 35%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme United?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 2.02 · JK Nomme United 1.85), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.