Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

FC Flora Tallinn1.47

JK Nomme Kalju1.44

1X2

37% 26% 36%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWLL

JK Nomme Kalju 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWWWLL

Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 2–4 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju0-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn0-1JK Nomme Kalju
FC Flora Tallinn1-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju3-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-0JK Nomme Kalju
FC Flora Tallinn2-3JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1454 · JK Nomme Kalju 1541

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1454 vs 1541).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.3	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +8’	2.38	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 2–0–4 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
28/02/26 Estonia Super Cup	FC Flora Tallinn	1-3 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju
28/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn
06/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
27/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 HT 1-1	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	5-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Kuressaare	2-3 L	0-0 D
Harju JK Laagri	1-0 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn

WLWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W

JK Nomme Kalju

LDDWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (37%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 37%, draw 26%, JK Nomme Kalju 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 2.91 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 1.47 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.44), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.