Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 30/08, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

JK Nomme Kalju1.26

FC Levadia Tallinn2.05

1X2

22% 23% 55%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 2–2–2 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju1-1FC Levadia Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju2-1FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju3-3FC Levadia Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju2-0FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1516 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1618

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	22%	23%	55%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1516 vs 1618).
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	3.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.2	4.4 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +7’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 2–2–2 FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
21/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
21/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-1 HT 2-0	JK Nomme Kalju
24/05/25 Estonia Cup	JK Nomme Kalju	3-3 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
04/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
30/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 2-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	FC Levadia Tallinn
Harju JK Laagri	0-1 L	3-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 L	2-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	3-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-3 L	6-1 W
FC Kuressaare	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 L	3-1 W
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	4-0 W
JK Nomme United	7-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
30/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
20/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
17/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
10/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
01/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
26/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
22/04	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	7-1	7	2	W

FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W
13/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
24/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	4-1	6-1	14	2	W
17/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
09/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
26/04	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	4-0	7-0	8	3	W
22/04	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
19/04	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (55%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 22%, draw 23%, FC Levadia Tallinn 55%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.31 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 1.26 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.05), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.