Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 26/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.7

FC Bunyodkor0.96

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLWLW

FC Bunyodkor 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–2–3 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

FC Bunyodkor2-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor0-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-3FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor3-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor1-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-0FC Bunyodkor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1507 · FC Bunyodkor 1531

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	FC Bunyodkor
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Bunyodkor: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:56 +8’	1.65	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–2–3 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-0 HT 2-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
21/05/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	0-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
19/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-3 HT 2-1	FC Bunyodkor
21/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	3-2 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
21/08/22 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	1-1 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
16/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	FC Bunyodkor
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	1-2 L
Navbahor Namangan	0-2 L	2-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	1-1 D	2-1 W
Neftchi Fergana	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Bunyodkor (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LLDWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
17/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
12/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
07/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
02/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
20/03	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	4	L

FC Bunyodkor

LDWWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
24/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	3	1	W
14/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
07/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
02/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
18/03	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	7	W
11/03	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
06/03	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (54%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 54%, draw 26%, FC Bunyodkor 20%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.7 · FC Bunyodkor 0.96), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.