Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 04/09, 17:15

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Andijan

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · FK Andijan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.46

FK Andijan0.85

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Pakhtakor Tashkent Draw FK Andijan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWWDDWDD

FK Andijan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–1–2 FK Andijan (6 last)

FK Andijan0-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
FK Andijan2-6Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-3FK Andijan
Pakhtakor Tashkent3-1FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-3Pakhtakor Tashkent
FK Andijan1-0Pakhtakor Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1537 · FK Andijan 1529

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	FK Andijan
Our model	50%	29%	21%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Andijan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.79
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.29 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +3’	1.70	3.50	4.10
17:36 +44’	1.73▲	3.50	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +1’	1.79	3.47	4.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–1–2 FK Andijan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	0-0 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
22/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	2-6 HT 0-3	Pakhtakor Tashkent
13/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-3 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
31/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	3-1 HT 1-1	FK Andijan
02/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-3 HT 0-2	Pakhtakor Tashkent
08/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-0 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	19	14	3	2	45	10	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	19	11	7	1	31	18	40
3	Navbahor Namangan	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
6	AGMK	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
7	FK Andijan	19	8	3	8	24	20	27
8	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
9	Nasaf Qarshi	19	6	7	6	20	18	25
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Xorazm Urganch	19	5	5	9	17	28	20
13	Termez Surkhon	19	5	5	9	16	26	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	19	6	1	12	20	31	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Andijan
Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 D	2-1 W
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	1-2 L
FK Buxoro	2-2 D	2-0 W
Xorazm Urganch	2-1 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Andijan (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent

DDDWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
28/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	8	4	D

FK Andijan

WWLDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
06/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
18/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
04/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (51%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 51%, draw 27%, FK Andijan 22%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.46 · FK Andijan 0.85), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.