Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 04/09, 16:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Lokomotiv Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Navbahor Namangan1.73

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.04

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Lokomotiv Tashkent

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDDWWWWW

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 6–0 Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 last)

Lokomotiv Tashkent0-2Navbahor Namangan
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan4-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan2-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Navbahor Namangan1-0Lokomotiv Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1566 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1527

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.8	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.72
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	4.33 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.73 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +34’	1.65	3.60	4.33
18:14 +3’	1.70▲	3.70▲	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +1’	1.72	3.50	4.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 6–0–0 Lokomotiv Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-2	Navbahor Namangan
20/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
05/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	4-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
03/11/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
27/05/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
15/08/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	19	14	3	2	45	10	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	19	11	7	1	31	18	40
3	Navbahor Namangan	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
6	AGMK	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
7	FK Andijan	19	8	3	8	24	20	27
8	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
9	Nasaf Qarshi	19	6	7	6	20	18	25
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Xorazm Urganch	19	5	5	9	17	28	20
13	Termez Surkhon	19	5	5	9	16	26	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	19	6	1	12	20	31	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Lokomotiv Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor	4-3 W	4-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	5-1 W	3-1 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 D	1-0 W
AGMK	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Navbahor Namangan

LDLDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
21/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LWDDWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (53%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 53%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 22%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.73 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.04), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.