Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 04/09, 15:00

Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs Termez Surkhon

Team pages: FC Bunyodkor · Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

FC Bunyodkor1.29

Termez Surkhon1.05

1X2

42% 28% 30%

FC Bunyodkor Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Bunyodkor 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Termez Surkhon 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWLLDD

Head-to-head

FC Bunyodkor 2–1–3 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Termez Surkhon0-0FC Bunyodkor
Termez Surkhon3-1FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor3-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-1FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor0-2Termez Surkhon
FC Bunyodkor0-1Termez Surkhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1424 · Termez Surkhon 1463

	FC Bunyodkor	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Bunyodkor	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.19
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.11 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +10’	2.10	3.30	3.00
18:03 +13’	2.10	3.40▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:05	2.19	3.27	3.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 2–1–3 Termez Surkhon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Bunyodkor
13/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Bunyodkor
28/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	3-1 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
22/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Bunyodkor
05/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-2 HT 0-2	Termez Surkhon
29/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-1 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	19	14	3	2	45	10	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	19	11	7	1	31	18	40
3	Navbahor Namangan	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
6	AGMK	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
7	FK Andijan	19	8	3	8	24	20	27
8	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
9	Nasaf Qarshi	19	6	7	6	20	18	25
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Xorazm Urganch	19	5	5	9	17	28	20
13	Termez Surkhon	19	5	5	9	16	26	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	19	6	1	12	20	31	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Bunyodkor	Termez Surkhon
FK Kokand 1912	0-1 L	1-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	3-4 L	0-1 L
AGMK	2-3 L	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Termez Surkhon (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Bunyodkor

WLLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
02/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W

Termez Surkhon

LDWLLWLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
13/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Bunyodkor win (42%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 42%, draw 28%, Termez Surkhon 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.33 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.29 · Termez Surkhon 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.