Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 04/09, 16:00

Prediction: Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: Nasaf Qarshi · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Nasaf Qarshi1

Neftchi Fergana1.48

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Nasaf Qarshi Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nasaf Qarshi 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWDLLL

Neftchi Fergana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Nasaf Qarshi 2–1–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana2-1Nasaf Qarshi
Neftchi Fergana1-0Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi0-0Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana2-0Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi1-0Neftchi Fergana
Nasaf Qarshi2-0Neftchi Fergana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasaf Qarshi 1494 · Neftchi Fergana 1573

	Nasaf Qarshi	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	25%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1494 vs 1573).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasaf Qarshi	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	2.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	2.6 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.25

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.05 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.97

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +8’	3.60	3.25	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +1’	4.05	3.09	1.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasaf Qarshi 2–1–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-1 HT 1-1	Nasaf Qarshi
11/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 1-0	Nasaf Qarshi
29/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
22/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-0 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
20/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana
07/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-0 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	19	14	3	2	45	10	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	19	11	7	1	31	18	40
3	Navbahor Namangan	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
6	AGMK	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
7	FK Andijan	19	8	3	8	24	20	27
8	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
9	Nasaf Qarshi	19	6	7	6	20	18	25
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Xorazm Urganch	19	5	5	9	17	28	20
13	Termez Surkhon	19	5	5	9	16	26	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	19	6	1	12	20	31	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasaf Qarshi	Neftchi Fergana
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	5-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Kokand 1912	0-0 D	4-0 W
AGMK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nasaf Qarshi

DDWDWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
28/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	4	4	D

Neftchi Fergana

WDWWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (47%). Probabilities: Nasaf Qarshi 25%, draw 28%, Neftchi Fergana 47%.

How many goals are expected in Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Nasaf Qarshi 1 · Neftchi Fergana 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.