Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 25/08, 16:00

Prediction: Termez Surkhon vs AGMK

Team pages: Termez Surkhon · AGMK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Termez Surkhon0.99

AGMK1.35

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Termez Surkhon Draw AGMK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Termez Surkhon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWLDL

AGMK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWWDWD

Head-to-head

Termez Surkhon 3–2–1 AGMK (6 last)

AGMK1-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-0AGMK
AGMK0-1Termez Surkhon
AGMK1-0Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon2-1AGMK
AGMK2-3Termez Surkhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termez Surkhon 1516 · AGMK 1550

	Termez Surkhon	Draw	AGMK
Our model	26%	30%	44%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termez Surkhon	AGMK
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
X	3.20 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.08 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +9’	2.50	3.20	2.50
11:55 +8’	2.90▲	3.50▲	2.05▼
12:57 +6’	3.20▲	3.40▼	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +1’	2.98	3.33	2.13
13:03	3.17▲	3.23▼	2.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termez Surkhon 3–2–1 AGMK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-1 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
20/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	AGMK
30/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	0-1 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon
16/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-0 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon
06/04/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	2-1 HT 0-0	AGMK
29/07/23 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-3 HT 1-1	Termez Surkhon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termez Surkhon	AGMK
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-1 D	1-3 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-5 L	2-2 D
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Buxoro	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Termez Surkhon

DWWDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L
22/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
17/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
12/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
08/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
04/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	4	6	W
20/03	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
11/03	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

AGMK

LDWLDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
23/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
17/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	3-2	11	6	W
12/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	7	0	L
18/03	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
12/03	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
06/03	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termez Surkhon vs AGMK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AGMK win (45%). Probabilities: Termez Surkhon 27%, draw 28%, AGMK 45%.

How many goals are expected in Termez Surkhon vs AGMK?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Termez Surkhon 0.99 · AGMK 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Termez Surkhon vs AGMK?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.