Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 26/08, 16:00

Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs Navbahor Namangan

Team pages: Mashal Mubarek · Navbahor Namangan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Mashal Mubarek0.5

Navbahor Namangan1.71

1X2

11% 22% 67%

Mashal Mubarek Draw Navbahor Namangan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-1 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Mashal Mubarek 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Navbahor Namangan 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDLDW

Head-to-head

Mashal Mubarek 1–2–3 Navbahor Namangan (6 last)

Navbahor Namangan2-1Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-0Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan6-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-0Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan2-1Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek3-0Navbahor Namangan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mashal Mubarek 1366 · Navbahor Namangan 1556

	Mashal Mubarek	Draw	Navbahor Namangan
Our model	9%	25%	66%
Market	12%	20%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1366 vs 1556).
H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mashal Mubarek	Navbahor Namangan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.5	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.50

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:01 +3’	7.50	4.50	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 1–2–3 Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-1 HT 2-0	Mashal Mubarek
21/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
28/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	6-0 HT 4-0	Mashal Mubarek
23/10/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
20/06/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-1 HT 1-0	Mashal Mubarek
24/11/20 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	3-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mashal Mubarek	Navbahor Namangan
Termez Surkhon	1-2 L	1-0 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 L	2-0 W
FC Bunyodkor	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Andijan	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mashal Mubarek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
13/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
07/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
03/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
19/03	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
10/03	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Navbahor Namangan

WLWWWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
07/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/03	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
10/03	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs Navbahor Namangan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Navbahor Namangan win (67%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 11%, draw 22%, Navbahor Namangan 67%.

How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Mashal Mubarek 0.5 · Navbahor Namangan 1.71), with a 60% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.