Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 26/08, 17:00

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Nasaf Qarshi

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.85

Nasaf Qarshi1.27

1X2

24% 30% 46%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Nasaf Qarshi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDLL

Nasaf Qarshi 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 0–2–4 Nasaf Qarshi (6 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon0-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi4-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon0-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi2-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Nasaf Qarshi0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1Nasaf Qarshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1451 · Nasaf Qarshi 1518

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Nasaf Qarshi
Our model	24%	31%	45%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nasaf Qarshi (rating 1451 vs 1518).
H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Nasaf Qarshi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	1.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.10

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +3’	3.60	3.10	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0–2–4 Nasaf Qarshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
27/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	4-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
16/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
16/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 HT 2-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
19/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
01/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Nasaf Qarshi
Neftchi Fergana	0-5 L	1-2 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK Kokand 1912	2-1 W	0-0 D
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qizilqum Zarafshon

WLLLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
04/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
18/03	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
10/03	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Nasaf Qarshi

DLWDDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
28/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-3	10	0	L
18/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
13/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
08/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
03/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/03	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/03	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Nasaf Qarshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nasaf Qarshi win (46%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 24%, draw 30%, Nasaf Qarshi 46%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.85 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.