Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 03/09, 16:00

Prediction: AGMK vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: AGMK · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

AGMK1.85

Xorazm Urganch0.9

1X2

60% 22% 18%

AGMK Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWLLD

Xorazm Urganch 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWDLL

Head-to-head

AGMK 3–1 Xorazm Urganch (4 last)

Xorazm Urganch1-0AGMK
AGMK3-1Xorazm Urganch
AGMK1-0Xorazm Urganch
AGMK4-2Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1529 · Xorazm Urganch 1467

	AGMK	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGMK (rating 1529 vs 1467).
H2H favours AGMK: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.3	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.48▼	Pinn 1.49
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.52
2	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.86 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +17’	1.53	4.20	4.50
22:37 +11’	1.57▲	4.10▼	4.33▼
11:01 +4’	1.53▼	4.10	4.50▲
13:44 +10’	1.50▼	4.20▲	4.75▲
15:57	1.48▼	4.50▲	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16	1.57	4.05	5.11
22:48	1.58▲	4.01▼	5.11
09:15	1.58	4.00▼	5.11
11:05	1.51▼	4.21▲	5.64▲
13:52 +1’	1.50▼	4.23▲	5.65▲
15:57	1.49▼	4.52▲	5.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 3–0–1 Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	1-0 HT 0-0	AGMK
23/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-1 HT 1-1	Xorazm Urganch
13/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch
03/09/23 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	4-2 HT 3-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	19	14	3	2	45	10	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	19	11	7	1	31	18	40
3	Navbahor Namangan	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
6	AGMK	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
7	FK Andijan	19	8	3	8	24	20	27
8	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
9	Nasaf Qarshi	19	6	7	6	20	18	25
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Xorazm Urganch	19	5	5	9	17	28	20
13	Termez Surkhon	19	5	5	9	16	26	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	19	6	1	12	20	31	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Xorazm Urganch
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	2-2 D
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	2-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	3-2 W	1-5 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Xorazm Urganch (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGMK

WDWWWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W

Xorazm Urganch

DLLLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGMK win (60%). Probabilities: AGMK 60%, draw 22%, Xorazm Urganch 18%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.75 goals (AGMK 1.85 · Xorazm Urganch 0.9), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.