Prediction: Atalanta vs Bologna
Team pages: Atalanta · Bologna
- Atalanta0-1Bologna
- Bologna0-2Atalanta
- Atalanta2-0Bologna
- Atalanta0-1Bologna
- Bologna1-1Atalanta
- Atalanta1-2Bologna
| Atalanta | Draw | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atalanta (rating 1581 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Bologna: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atalanta | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atalanta 2–1–3 Bologna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bologna |
| 07/01/26 Italy Serie A | Bologna | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atalanta |
| 13/04/25 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bologna |
| 04/02/25 Coppa Italia | Atalanta | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bologna |
| 28/09/24 Italy Serie A | Bologna | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Atalanta |
| 03/03/24 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Bologna |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Lazio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Como | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atalanta | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Roma | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Juventus | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Lecce | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atalanta (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atalanta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | AC Milan Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Roma Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Verona Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Bologna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Cremonese Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Bologna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atalanta win (50%). Probabilities: Atalanta 50%, draw 27%, Bologna 23%.
How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Bologna?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Atalanta 1.39 · Bologna 0.83), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.