Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/08, 01:00
Prediction: Excursionistas vs Argentino Merlo
Team pages: Excursionistas · Argentino Merlo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Excursionistas1.55
Argentino Merlo0.78
1X2
Excursionistas
Draw
Argentino Merlo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Excursionistas
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Argentino Merlo
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excursionistas
0–3–3
Argentino Merlo
(6 last)
- Argentino Merlo1-1Excursionistas
- Argentino Merlo4-0Excursionistas
- Excursionistas1-3Argentino Merlo
- Argentino Merlo2-1Excursionistas
- Excursionistas0-0Argentino Merlo
- Argentino Merlo2-2Excursionistas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1561 · Argentino Merlo 1479
| Excursionistas | Draw | Argentino Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1561 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Argentino Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/67/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.5 | 1.4 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 6.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 0–3–3 Argentino Merlo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Excursionistas |
| 29/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Excursionistas |
| 22/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Argentino Merlo |
| 05/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 15/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Argentino Merlo |
| 06/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Excursionistas |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 2 | Talleres Remedios | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | Villa Dalmine | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 37 |
| 4 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 37 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 34 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 33 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 31 |
| 8 | Deportivo Merlo | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 31 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 30 |
| 10 | San Martin De Burzaco | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 28 |
| 11 | Deportivo Armenio | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 25 | 25 |
| 12 | Argentino Merlo | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
| 13 | Deportivo Laferrere | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 27 | 24 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 23 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| 18 | CSD Flandria | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 22 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 19 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 16 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 35 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excursionistas | Argentino Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Merlo | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Sportivo Italiano | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| San Martin De Burzaco | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Villa San Carlos | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Liniers | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Real Pilar | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Villa Dalmine | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Argentino Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 26/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |
| 25/04 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Argentino Merlo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (54%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 54%, draw 28%, Argentino Merlo 18%.
How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Argentino Merlo?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Excursionistas 1.55 · Argentino Merlo 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Argentino Merlo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.