Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 30/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Villa Dalmine

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Villa Dalmine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.87Total

Argentino Merlo0.86

Villa Dalmine1.01

1X2

29% 33% 37%

Argentino Merlo Draw Villa Dalmine

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLWDDL

Villa Dalmine 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLWWD

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 3–1–1 Villa Dalmine (5 last)

Villa Dalmine1-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo3-1Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine0-2Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-0Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine0-0Argentino Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1475 · Villa Dalmine 1546

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Villa Dalmine
Our model	29%	35%	37%
Market	30%	32%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 1.87 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa Dalmine (rating 1475 vs 1546).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Villa Dalmine
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/78/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.75

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:25 +3’	3.00	2.75	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 3–1–1 Villa Dalmine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	1-0 HT 1-0	Argentino Merlo
18/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	3-1 HT 1-0	Villa Dalmine
31/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	0-2 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
21/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-0 HT 1-0	Villa Dalmine
05/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	32	18	8	6	49	24	62
2	Atletico Camioneros	32	16	11	5	39	20	59
3	Villa Dalmine	32	16	11	5	35	16	59
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	32	15	12	5	41	22	57
5	Talleres Remedios	32	16	9	7	34	17	57
6	Sportivo Italiano	32	14	10	8	36	25	52
7	Real Pilar	32	14	9	9	36	31	51
8	Deportivo Laferrere	32	12	9	11	38	41	45
9	Deportivo Armenio	32	12	8	12	34	37	44
10	Club Comunicaciones	32	11	10	11	32	31	43
11	CS Dock Sud	32	9	13	10	36	34	40
12	Argentino Merlo	32	10	10	12	30	32	40
13	San Martin De Burzaco	32	9	13	10	31	34	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	32	9	12	11	34	47	39
15	Villa San Carlos	32	9	11	12	34	37	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	32	8	13	11	28	33	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	32	8	11	13	24	32	35
18	Defensores Unidos	32	7	11	14	28	36	32
19	CSD Flandria	32	8	8	16	26	39	32
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	32	7	11	14	20	34	32
21	UAI Urquiza	32	3	19	10	15	28	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	32	1	11	20	19	49	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	Villa Dalmine
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 L	2-0 W
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	2-2 D	0-1 L
CSD Flandria	0-1 L	2-1 W
Argentino Quilmes	3-0 W	0-0 D
Defensores Unidos	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

DWLDLLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	10	W
05/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Villa Dalmine

WWDDDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
22/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
08/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
18/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
15/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
04/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villa Dalmine win (37%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 29%, draw 33%, Villa Dalmine 37%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

The model expects 1.87 goals (Argentino Merlo 0.86 · Villa Dalmine 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.