Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: Arsenal de Sarandi vs Excursionistas

Team pages: Arsenal de Sarandi · Excursionistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Arsenal de Sarandi1.18

Excursionistas0.88

1X2

42% 31% 27%

Arsenal de Sarandi Draw Excursionistas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal de Sarandi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDLDW

Excursionistas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Arsenal de Sarandi 1–0 Excursionistas (1 last)

Excursionistas0-1Arsenal de Sarandi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal de Sarandi 1528 · Excursionistas 1522

	Arsenal de Sarandi	Draw	Excursionistas
Our model	41%	33%	26%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal de Sarandi	Excursionistas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:09 +5’	2.10	2.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal de Sarandi 1–0–0 Excursionistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	0-1 HT 0-1	Arsenal de Sarandi

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	32	18	8	6	49	24	62
2	Atletico Camioneros	32	16	11	5	39	20	59
3	Villa Dalmine	32	16	11	5	35	16	59
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	32	15	12	5	41	22	57
5	Talleres Remedios	32	16	9	7	34	17	57
6	Sportivo Italiano	32	14	10	8	36	25	52
7	Real Pilar	32	14	9	9	36	31	51
8	Deportivo Laferrere	32	12	9	11	38	41	45
9	Deportivo Armenio	31	12	8	11	33	34	44
10	Club Comunicaciones	32	11	10	11	32	31	43
11	Argentino Merlo	32	10	10	12	30	32	40
12	San Martin De Burzaco	32	9	13	10	31	34	40
13	Deportivo Merlo	31	9	12	10	33	45	39
14	Villa San Carlos	32	9	11	12	34	37	38
15	CS Dock Sud	31	8	13	10	34	33	37
16	Argentino Quilmes	32	8	13	11	28	33	37
17	Defensores Unidos	32	7	11	14	28	36	32
18	Deportivo Liniers	31	7	11	13	21	31	32
19	CSD Flandria	32	8	8	16	26	39	32
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	32	7	11	14	20	34	32
21	UAI Urquiza	32	3	19	10	15	28	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	32	1	11	20	19	49	14

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arsenal de Sarandi	Excursionistas
Argentino Merlo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 D	5-3 W
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	2-1 W
CSD Flandria	1-0 W	1-1 D
Argentino Quilmes	0-1 L	0-0 D
Defensores Unidos	3-1 W	2-0 W
Club Comunicaciones	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal de Sarandi

WWLWDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
10/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	9	5	W
04/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Excursionistas

LLWDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	5-3	2	7	W
08/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
10/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
04/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal de Sarandi vs Excursionistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal de Sarandi win (42%). Probabilities: Arsenal de Sarandi 42%, draw 31%, Excursionistas 27%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal de Sarandi vs Excursionistas?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Arsenal de Sarandi 1.18 · Excursionistas 0.88), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal de Sarandi vs Excursionistas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.