Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/08, 20:00

Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere

Team pages: UAI Urquiza · Deportivo Laferrere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.75Total

UAI Urquiza0.91

Deportivo Laferrere0.83

1X2

35% 34% 31%

UAI Urquiza Draw Deportivo Laferrere

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

UAI Urquiza 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDLLWDDD

Deportivo Laferrere 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLWLWD

Head-to-head

UAI Urquiza 1–4–0 Deportivo Laferrere (5 last)

Deportivo Laferrere0-0UAI Urquiza
Deportivo Laferrere1-1UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza0-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere0-1UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza1-1Deportivo Laferrere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1478 · Deportivo Laferrere 1494

	UAI Urquiza	Draw	Deportivo Laferrere
Our model	34%	36%	30%
Market	36%	32%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 1.75 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UAI Urquiza	Deportivo Laferrere
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +4’	2.45	2.80	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 1–4–0 Deportivo Laferrere

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	0-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
16/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
21/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
25/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	0-1 HT 0-1	UAI Urquiza
13/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	20	12	5	3	27	11	41
2	Talleres Remedios	20	11	5	4	22	10	38
3	Villa Dalmine	20	10	7	3	24	10	37
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	20	10	7	3	27	14	37
5	Atletico Camioneros	20	9	7	4	21	14	34
6	Sportivo Italiano	20	9	6	5	21	17	33
7	Real Pilar	20	9	4	7	23	22	31
8	Deportivo Merlo	20	8	7	5	24	24	31
9	Club Comunicaciones	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
10	San Martin De Burzaco	20	7	7	6	22	19	28
11	Deportivo Armenio	20	7	4	9	21	25	25
12	Argentino Merlo	20	6	6	8	14	17	24
13	Deportivo Laferrere	20	6	6	8	21	27	24
14	CS Dock Sud	20	5	8	7	20	18	23
15	Argentino Quilmes	20	5	8	7	19	19	23
16	Defensores Unidos	20	5	8	7	18	21	23
17	Deportivo Liniers	20	6	5	9	13	20	23
18	CSD Flandria	20	6	4	10	16	24	22
19	UAI Urquiza	20	3	11	6	12	16	20
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	20	4	7	9	12	23	19
21	Villa San Carlos	20	3	7	10	19	27	16
22	CA Ituzaingo	20	1	5	14	14	35	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UAI Urquiza	Deportivo Laferrere
Sportivo Italiano	0-0 D	1-1 D
Villa San Carlos	0-0 D	2-0 W
Deportivo Liniers	2-1 W	0-0 D
Real Pilar	1-2 L	0-1 L
Club Comunicaciones	0-3 L	3-3 D
CA Ituzaingo	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Laferrere (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UAI Urquiza

LDDDLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
28/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/06	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
08/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
30/05	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
27/05	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
23/05	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
16/05	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
09/05	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	12	L

Deportivo Laferrere

LDWLDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-3	1	6	D
07/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
03/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
27/05	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
23/05	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/05	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
09/05	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
02/05	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
26/04	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UAI Urquiza win (35%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 35%, draw 34%, Deportivo Laferrere 31%.

How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model expects 1.75 goals (UAI Urquiza 0.91 · Deportivo Laferrere 0.83), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.