Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/08, 20:00

Prediction: Real Pilar vs CA Brown de Adrogue

Team pages: Real Pilar · CA Brown de Adrogue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.79Total

Real Pilar1.17

CA Brown de Adrogue0.62

1X2

49% 31% 20%

Real Pilar Draw CA Brown de Adrogue

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Pilar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDLWLW

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Real Pilar 0–3–0 CA Brown de Adrogue (3 last)

CA Brown de Adrogue1-1Real Pilar
Real Pilar1-1CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue0-0Real Pilar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Pilar 1487 · CA Brown de Adrogue 1469

	Real Pilar	Draw	CA Brown de Adrogue
Our model	48%	34%	19%
Market	50%	29%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Pilar	CA Brown de Adrogue
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1	0.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +4’	1.80	3.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Pilar 0–3–0 CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Pilar
02/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	1-1 HT 1-1	CA Brown de Adrogue
16/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Pilar

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	20	12	5	3	27	11	41
2	Talleres Remedios	20	11	5	4	22	10	38
3	Villa Dalmine	20	10	7	3	24	10	37
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	20	10	7	3	27	14	37
5	Atletico Camioneros	20	9	7	4	21	14	34
6	Sportivo Italiano	20	9	6	5	21	17	33
7	Real Pilar	20	9	4	7	23	22	31
8	Deportivo Merlo	20	8	7	5	24	24	31
9	Club Comunicaciones	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
10	San Martin De Burzaco	20	7	7	6	22	19	28
11	Deportivo Armenio	20	7	4	9	21	25	25
12	Argentino Merlo	20	6	6	8	14	17	24
13	Deportivo Laferrere	20	6	6	8	21	27	24
14	CS Dock Sud	20	5	8	7	20	18	23
15	Argentino Quilmes	20	5	8	7	19	19	23
16	Defensores Unidos	20	5	8	7	18	21	23
17	Deportivo Liniers	20	6	5	9	13	20	23
18	CSD Flandria	20	6	4	10	16	24	22
19	UAI Urquiza	20	3	11	6	12	16	20
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	20	4	7	9	12	23	19
21	Villa San Carlos	20	3	7	10	19	27	16
22	CA Ituzaingo	20	1	5	14	14	35	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Pilar	CA Brown de Adrogue
Deportivo Liniers	1-0 W	0-1 L
CS Dock Sud	0-2 L	1-0 W
Talleres Remedios	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Pilar

WDDLLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
05/06	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	12	L
30/05	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
26/05	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
23/05	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
16/05	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/05	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
02/05	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	11	D
26/04	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
18/04	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

CA Brown de Adrogue

LWDDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
30/05	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
27/05	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
23/05	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
16/05	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
09/05	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/05	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
25/04	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	9	W
19/04	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Pilar vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Pilar win (49%). Probabilities: Real Pilar 49%, draw 31%, CA Brown de Adrogue 20%.

How many goals are expected in Real Pilar vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model expects 1.79 goals (Real Pilar 1.17 · CA Brown de Adrogue 0.62), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Pilar vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.