Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos

Team pages: Sportivo Italiano · Defensores Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Sportivo Italiano1.37

Defensores Unidos0.61

1X2

55% 29% 16%

Sportivo Italiano Draw Defensores Unidos

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Italiano 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLDDW

Defensores Unidos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Sportivo Italiano 2–1–2 Defensores Unidos (5 last)

Defensores Unidos2-0Sportivo Italiano
Defensores Unidos2-2Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano2-1Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos3-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano2-0Defensores Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Italiano 1509 · Defensores Unidos 1492

	Sportivo Italiano	Draw	Defensores Unidos
Our model	54%	30%	15%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Italiano	Defensores Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	6.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.30

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +4’	1.60	3.30	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Italiano 2–1–2 Defensores Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
05/03/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-2 HT 0-2	Sportivo Italiano
29/09/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	2-1	Defensores Unidos
28/04/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	3-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo Italiano
18/10/16 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	2-0 HT 2-0	Defensores Unidos

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	20	12	5	3	27	11	41
2	Talleres Remedios	20	11	5	4	22	10	38
3	Villa Dalmine	20	10	7	3	24	10	37
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	20	10	7	3	27	14	37
5	Atletico Camioneros	20	9	7	4	21	14	34
6	Sportivo Italiano	20	9	6	5	21	17	33
7	Real Pilar	20	9	4	7	23	22	31
8	Deportivo Merlo	20	8	7	5	24	24	31
9	Club Comunicaciones	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
10	San Martin De Burzaco	20	7	7	6	22	19	28
11	Deportivo Armenio	20	7	4	9	21	25	25
12	Argentino Merlo	20	6	6	8	14	17	24
13	Deportivo Laferrere	20	6	6	8	21	27	24
14	CS Dock Sud	20	5	8	7	20	18	23
15	Argentino Quilmes	20	5	8	7	19	19	23
16	Defensores Unidos	20	5	8	7	18	21	23
17	Deportivo Liniers	20	6	5	9	13	20	23
18	CSD Flandria	20	6	4	10	16	24	22
19	UAI Urquiza	20	3	11	6	12	16	20
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	20	4	7	9	12	23	19
21	Villa San Carlos	20	3	7	10	19	27	16
22	CA Ituzaingo	20	1	5	14	14	35	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Italiano	Defensores Unidos
Deportivo Merlo	4-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Camioneros	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Italiano

DDWLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
28/06	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
06/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
31/05	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/05	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
23/05	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
18/05	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/05	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Defensores Unidos

LDLDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
06/06	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
31/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
27/05	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
23/05	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/05	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	5	9	W
09/05	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
02/05	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	12	L
25/04	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	10	D
20/04	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Italiano win (55%). Probabilities: Sportivo Italiano 55%, draw 29%, Defensores Unidos 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Sportivo Italiano 1.37 · Defensores Unidos 0.61), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.