Football · Peru Liga 1 · 31/08, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: Atletico Grau · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Atletico Grau1.06

FBC Melgar1.06

1X2

34% 31% 34%

Atletico Grau Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Grau 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLDWW

FBC Melgar 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Grau 0–4–2 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar0-0Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau0-0FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-1Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar0-0Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau1-2FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar3-0Atletico Grau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Grau 1522 · FBC Melgar 1538

	Atletico Grau	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	34%	33%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FBC Melgar: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.79 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +2’	2.63	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +1’	2.61	3.03	2.75
02:28 +2’	2.60▼	3.02▼	2.76▲
08:33 +1’	2.62▲	3.02	2.74▼
22:54	2.74▲	2.75▼	2.86▲
23:12	2.79▲	2.77▲	2.79▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Grau 0–4–2 FBC Melgar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Grau
05/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	0-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
19/05/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Grau
24/09/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Grau
21/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	1-2 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
07/07/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	3-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Grau

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	23	15	7	1	40	14	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	23	12	6	5	35	22	42
3	CD Los Chankas	23	12	5	6	31	33	41
4	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Grau	FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca	3-1 W	2-4 L
Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 W	1-1 D
Juan Pablo II College	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	4-1 W
Deportivo Moquegua	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cienciano	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Grau (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Grau

LWLWWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
14/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
08/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
01/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
25/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
18/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
16/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
09/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	3	7	L

FBC Melgar

DWDWWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
31/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
16/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	7	W
10/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Grau win (34%). Probabilities: Atletico Grau 34%, draw 31%, FBC Melgar 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Atletico Grau 1.06 · FBC Melgar 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.