Football · Peru Liga 1 · 06/09, 03:30

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs Comerciantes Unidos

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · Comerciantes Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Universitario de Deportes2.04

Comerciantes Unidos0.52

1X2

73% 19% 8%

Universitario de Deportes Draw Comerciantes Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLDWWW

Comerciantes Unidos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLWLWL

Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 4–2–0 Comerciantes Unidos (6 last)

Comerciantes Unidos0-0Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-1Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos1-1Universitario de Deportes
Comerciantes Unidos0-2Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes6-0Comerciantes Unidos
Universitario de Deportes2-0Comerciantes Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1549 · Comerciantes Unidos 1461

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	Comerciantes Unidos
Our model	72%	20%	7%
Market	73%	18%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1549 vs 1461).
H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	Comerciantes Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.16 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +1’	1.25	5.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:35 +1’	1.28	5.16	9.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 4–2–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
19/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-1 HT 2-1	Comerciantes Unidos
09/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-1 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
29/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-2 HT 0-1	Universitario de Deportes
29/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	6-0 HT 4-0	Comerciantes Unidos
25/11/18 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	2-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	24	13	6	5	39	24	45
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
5	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	24	7	8	9	32	33	29
12	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
13	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
14	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
15	FC Cajamarca	24	6	6	12	36	44	24
16	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
17	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	24	4	8	12	27	42	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes	Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca	4-2 W	3-1 W
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	2-3 L
FC Cajamarca	3-2 W	2-3 L
Cusco FC	2-1 W	3-1 W
AD Tarma	2-1 W	0-2 L
Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 D	2-2 D
Atletico Grau	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes

LDWWWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W
23/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
16/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Comerciantes Unidos

LDLDDLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
22/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
14/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	1	5	W
31/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-3	7	6	L
26/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
18/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-2	3	5	D
31/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
17/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	9	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs Comerciantes Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (73%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 73%, draw 19%, Comerciantes Unidos 8%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Universitario de Deportes 2.04 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.52), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.