Football · Peru Liga 1 · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima

Team pages: Juan Pablo II College · Alianza Lima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Juan Pablo II College0.86

Alianza Lima1.61

1X2

19% 26% 54%

Juan Pablo II College Draw Alianza Lima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juan Pablo II College 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLDLWW

Alianza Lima 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Juan Pablo II College 0–3 Alianza Lima (3 last)

Alianza Lima2-0Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College1-2Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima1-0Juan Pablo II College

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juan Pablo II College 1483 · Alianza Lima 1517

	Juan Pablo II College	Draw	Alianza Lima
Our model	19%	27%	54%
Market	20%	26%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza Lima: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juan Pablo II College	Alianza Lima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.6	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +1’	4.75	3.60	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:30	4.16	3.59	1.79
12:34	4.30▲	3.65▲	1.75▼
14:40	4.45▲	3.72▲	1.71▼
18:05 +1’	4.42▼	3.65▼	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo II College 0–0–3 Alianza Lima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	2-0 HT 0-0	Juan Pablo II College
01/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	1-2 HT 1-1	Alianza Lima
22/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-0 HT 1-0	Juan Pablo II College

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	24	13	6	5	39	24	45
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
5	FBC Melgar	24	11	6	7	40	28	39
6	Cusco FC	24	12	3	9	36	36	39
7	Cienciano	24	11	4	9	39	35	37
8	Alianza Atletico	24	9	7	8	34	29	34
9	Sport Boys	24	9	7	8	26	23	34
10	Sporting Cristal	24	8	5	11	38	38	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	24	7	8	9	32	33	29
12	Atletico Grau	24	8	5	11	20	23	29
13	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
14	Sport Huancayo	24	7	5	12	31	41	26
15	Deportivo Moquegua	24	6	7	11	23	33	25
16	FC Cajamarca	24	6	6	12	36	44	24
17	AD Tarma	24	5	7	12	27	36	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	24	4	8	12	27	42	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juan Pablo II College	Alianza Lima
CD Los Chankas	4-3 W	3-0 W
Cienciano	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Cajamarca	2-2 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-4 L	0-1 L
FBC Melgar	1-1 D	1-1 D
Alianza Atletico	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juan Pablo II College

LDLDWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	9	D
30/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
22/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Alianza Lima

WWDWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Lima win (54%). Probabilities: Juan Pablo II College 19%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 54%.

How many goals are expected in Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Juan Pablo II College 0.86 · Alianza Lima 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.