Football · Peru Liga 1 · 11/09, 22:00

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · Juan Pablo II College

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

UTC Cajamarca1.6

Juan Pablo II College1.15

1X2

46% 28% 26%

UTC Cajamarca Draw Juan Pablo II College

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Juan Pablo II College 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 0–1–2 Juan Pablo II College (3 last)

Juan Pablo II College2-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca0-0Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College4-2UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1441 · Juan Pablo II College 1496

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	Juan Pablo II College
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo II College (rating 1441 vs 1496).
H2H favours Juan Pablo II College: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	Juan Pablo II College
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.6	3.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +13’	2.00	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +3’	1.95	3.29	3.54
01:21 +52’	1.98▲	3.37▲	3.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 0–1–2 Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	2-1 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca
16/08/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-0 HT 0-0	Juan Pablo II College
30/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	4-2 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	25	13	7	5	41	26	46
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	Cusco FC	25	13	3	9	38	36	42
5	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
6	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
7	FBC Melgar	24	11	6	7	40	28	39
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Comerciantes Unidos	25	7	9	9	34	35	30
11	Sporting Cristal	24	8	5	11	38	38	29
12	Atletico Grau	24	8	5	11	20	23	29
13	Sport Huancayo	25	8	5	12	33	42	29
14	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
15	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
16	FC Cajamarca	25	6	6	13	38	49	24
17	AD Tarma	24	5	7	12	27	36	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	25	4	8	13	29	45	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	Juan Pablo II College
Alianza Atletico	2-3 L	0-2 L
AD Tarma	1-1 D	5-1 W
Cusco FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	0-0 D
CD Los Chankas	2-2 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Juan Pablo II College (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UTC Cajamarca

DDLDLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Juan Pablo II College

LDLDWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	9	D
30/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
22/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UTC Cajamarca win (46%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 46%, draw 28%, Juan Pablo II College 26%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model expects 2.74 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.6 · Juan Pablo II College 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.