Football · Peru Liga 1 · 07/09, 01:30
Prediction: FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma
Team pages: FBC Melgar · AD Tarma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
FBC Melgar2.11
AD Tarma0.89
1X2
FBC Melgar
Draw
AD Tarma
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FBC Melgar
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
AD Tarma
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FBC Melgar
3–3–0
AD Tarma
(6 last)
- AD Tarma1-1FBC Melgar
- AD Tarma2-2FBC Melgar
- FBC Melgar4-0AD Tarma
- AD Tarma1-1FBC Melgar
- FBC Melgar3-1AD Tarma
- FBC Melgar4-0AD Tarma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1524 · AD Tarma 1436
| FBC Melgar | Draw | AD Tarma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1524 vs 1436).
- H2H favours FBC Melgar: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FBC Melgar | AD Tarma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 3–3–0 AD Tarma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FBC Melgar |
| 24/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 2-2 HT 0-0 | FBC Melgar |
| 05/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 4-0 HT 2-0 | AD Tarma |
| 16/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FBC Melgar |
| 09/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 3-1 HT 1-0 | AD Tarma |
| 23/06/23 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 4-0 HT 2-0 | AD Tarma |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 52 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 24 | 45 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 42 |
| 4 | CD Los Chankas | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 28 | 39 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 36 | 39 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 35 | 37 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 34 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 23 | 34 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 38 | 38 | 29 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 33 | 29 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 23 | 29 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 50 | 27 |
| 14 | Sport Huancayo | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 41 | 26 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 33 | 25 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 36 | 44 | 24 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 42 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FBC Melgar | AD Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Sport Huancayo | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FBC Melgar (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
AD Tarma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 22/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (65%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 65%, draw 21%, AD Tarma 14%.
How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma?
The model expects 3 goals (FBC Melgar 2.11 · AD Tarma 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.