Football · Peru Liga 1 · 31/08, 02:00

Prediction: Cienciano vs Cusco FC

Team pages: Cienciano · Cusco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Cienciano1.81

Cusco FC1.48

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Cienciano Draw Cusco FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cienciano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWLDL

Cusco FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Cienciano 2–1–3 Cusco FC (6 last)

Cusco FC1-2Cienciano
Cusco FC1-2Cienciano
Cienciano1-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC0-0Cienciano
Cienciano1-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC2-0Cienciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cienciano 1486 · Cusco FC 1486

	Cienciano	Draw	Cusco FC
Our model	45%	25%	31%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cusco FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cienciano	Cusco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.16 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +3’	2.00	3.50	3.30
17:47 +2’	2.10▲	3.50	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +1’	2.09	3.22	3.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cienciano 2–1–3 Cusco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Cusco FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Cienciano
16/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Cienciano
19/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	1-2 HT 0-2	Cusco FC
14/06/25 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Cienciano
29/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	1-2 HT 1-2	Cusco FC
28/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Cienciano

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	23	15	7	1	40	14	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	23	12	6	5	35	22	42
3	CD Los Chankas	23	12	5	6	31	33	41
4	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cienciano	Cusco FC
Sport Boys	1-5 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 D	1-4 L
Alianza Atletico	0-1 L	4-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	2-0 W	1-2 L
Juan Pablo II College	0-2 L	2-0 W
Atletico Grau	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cusco FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cienciano

WLDWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-3	1-5	8	2	L
17/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
06/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
01/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
24/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
17/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
09/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Cusco FC

DLWWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
15/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
02/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
11/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cienciano vs Cusco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cienciano win (44%). Probabilities: Cienciano 44%, draw 26%, Cusco FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Cienciano vs Cusco FC?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Cienciano 1.81 · Cusco FC 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cienciano vs Cusco FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.