Football · Peru Liga 1 · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Cusco FC vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: Cusco FC · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Cusco FC2.1

Deportivo Moquegua0.6

1X2

72% 19% 9%

Cusco FC Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cusco FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWLWL

Deportivo Moquegua 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDDLDW

Head-to-head

Cusco FC 1–0 Deportivo Moquegua (1 last)

Deportivo Moquegua1-2Cusco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1504 · Deportivo Moquegua 1448

	Cusco FC	Draw	Deportivo Moquegua
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	72%	18%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cusco FC (rating 1504 vs 1448).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cusco FC	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	0.9 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.47 ★
2	10.00 → 10.00	Pinn 10.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +16’	1.27	5.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:32	1.26	5.47	10.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 1–0–0 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	1-2 HT 0-1	Cusco FC

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	24	13	6	5	39	24	45
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
5	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	24	7	8	9	32	33	29
12	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
13	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
14	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
15	FC Cajamarca	24	6	6	12	36	44	24
16	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
17	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	24	4	8	12	27	42	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cusco FC	Deportivo Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-4 L	0-2 L
Comerciantes Unidos	1-3 L	2-2 D
UTC Cajamarca	4-1 W	0-0 D
Universitario de Deportes	1-2 L	0-0 D
AD Tarma	2-1 W	2-2 D
Atletico Grau	1-0 W	0-1 L
Sport Boys	0-1 L	1-1 D
CD Los Chankas	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 5 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cusco FC

DLWWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
15/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
02/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
11/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Deportivo Moquegua

DLDLDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
09/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (72%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 72%, draw 19%, Deportivo Moquegua 9%.

How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Cusco FC 2.1 · Deportivo Moquegua 0.6), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.