Football · Peru Liga 1 · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal

Team pages: Sport Boys · Sporting Cristal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Sport Boys1.06

Sporting Cristal1.33

1X2

29% 28% 42%

Sport Boys Draw Sporting Cristal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Boys 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWDDW

Sporting Cristal 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWDWL

Head-to-head

Sport Boys 0–1–5 Sporting Cristal (6 last)

Sporting Cristal3-0Sport Boys
Sport Boys0-2Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1Sport Boys
Sporting Cristal4-0Sport Boys
Sport Boys1-3Sporting Cristal
Sport Boys1-1Sporting Cristal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1559 · Sporting Cristal 1510

	Sport Boys	Draw	Sporting Cristal
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Boys (rating 1559 vs 1510).
H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Boys	Sporting Cristal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.4	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:23 +4’	3.10	3.40	2.15
00:20 +3’	2.88▼	3.40	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 0–1–5 Sporting Cristal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	3-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys
26/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal
16/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 1-0	Sport Boys
21/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	4-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys
04/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	1-3 HT 0-3	Sporting Cristal
10/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	1-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	Universitario de Deportes	22	11	6	5	32	22	39
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
5	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
6	Cienciano	22	11	4	7	37	28	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
10	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
11	Sport Boys	22	7	7	8	20	22	28
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Boys	Sporting Cristal
Cienciano	5-1 W	2-3 L
Alianza Lima	1-1 D	1-1 D
AD Tarma	2-0 W	2-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Boys

DWDWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	3-1	5-1	3	2	W
16/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
09/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
01/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
25/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
19/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
31/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
23/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
12/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Sporting Cristal

DLWLWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
08/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
02/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
01/06	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
24/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	12	9	W
15/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	3	9	L
10/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Cristal win (42%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 29%, draw 28%, Sporting Cristal 42%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Sport Boys 1.06 · Sporting Cristal 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.