Prediction: Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Team pages: Newcastle · Bournemouth
- Newcastle1-2Bournemouth
- Newcastle2-2Bournemouth
- Bournemouth0-0Newcastle
- Newcastle1-4Bournemouth
- Bournemouth1-1Newcastle
- Newcastle2-2Bournemouth
| Newcastle | Draw | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bournemouth (rating 1494 vs 1565).
- H2H favours Bournemouth: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle 0–4–2 Bournemouth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England Premier League | Newcastle | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bournemouth |
| 10/01/26 England FA Cup | Newcastle | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Bournemouth |
| 21/09/25 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
| 18/01/25 England Premier League | Newcastle | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Bournemouth |
| 25/08/24 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Newcastle |
| 17/02/24 England Premier League | Newcastle | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Bournemouth |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Hull | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Nottm Forest | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Fulham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Arsenal | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Crystal Palace | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Bournemouth (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
Bournemouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Man City England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/05 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle win (43%). Probabilities: Newcastle 43%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 31%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Newcastle 1.7 · Bournemouth 1.42), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.