Football · England Premier League · 14/09, 21:00
Prediction: Leeds vs Newcastle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Leeds1.73
Newcastle1.51
1X2
Leeds
Draw
Newcastle
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Leeds
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Newcastle
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leeds
0–4–2
Newcastle
(6 last)
- Newcastle4-3Leeds
- Leeds0-0Newcastle
- Leeds2-2Newcastle
- Newcastle0-0Leeds
- Leeds0-1Newcastle
- Newcastle1-1Leeds
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leeds 1588 · Newcastle 1518
| Leeds | Draw | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leeds (rating 1588 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Newcastle: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leeds | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 2.3 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds 0–4–2 Newcastle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 England Premier League | Newcastle | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Leeds |
| 30/08/25 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
| 13/05/23 England Premier League | Leeds | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Newcastle |
| 31/12/22 England Premier League | Newcastle | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 22/01/22 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
| 17/09/21 England Premier League | Newcastle | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Leeds |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Man City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Hull | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 10 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Nottm Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Brighton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leeds | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| West Ham | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Tottenham | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Bournemouth | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Newcastle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leeds vs Newcastle?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leeds win (42%). Probabilities: Leeds 42%, draw 26%, Newcastle 32%.
How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Newcastle?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Leeds 1.73 · Newcastle 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Newcastle?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.