Prediction: Man Utd vs Man City
Team pages: Man Utd · Man City
- Man Utd2-0Man City
- Man City3-0Man Utd
- Man Utd0-0Man City
- Man City1-2Man Utd
- Man Utd1-1Man City
- Man City1-2Man Utd
| Man Utd | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (rating 1546 vs 1594).
- H2H favours Man Utd: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man Utd | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.6 | 4.6 / 8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man Utd 3–2–1 Man City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England Premier League | Man Utd | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 14/09/25 England Premier League | Man City | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Man Utd |
| 06/04/25 England Premier League | Man Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 15/12/24 England Premier League | Man City | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Man Utd |
| 10/08/24 Community Shield | Man Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 25/05/24 England FA Cup | Man City | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Man Utd |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hull | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Everton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Brighton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Man Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 13 | Ipswich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 | Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man Utd | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2-2 D | 3-3 D |
| Brentford | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/05 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man Utd vs Man City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man City win (44%). Probabilities: Man Utd 30%, draw 26%, Man City 44%.
How many goals are expected in Man Utd vs Man City?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Man Utd 1.32 · Man City 1.64), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Man Utd vs Man City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.