Football · England Premier League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Bournemouth vs Brentford

Team pages: Bournemouth · Brentford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Bournemouth1.66

Brentford1.62

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Bournemouth Draw Brentford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bournemouth 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDLDD

Brentford 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDWDD

Head-to-head

Bournemouth 0–1–5 Brentford (6 last)

Bournemouth0-0Brentford
Brentford4-1Bournemouth
Bournemouth0-2Brentford
Bournemouth1-2Brentford
Brentford3-2Bournemouth
Bournemouth1-2Brentford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bournemouth 1559 · Brentford 1579

	Bournemouth	Draw	Brentford
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brentford: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bournemouth	Brentford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	2.55 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.68

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +4’	2.55	3.40	2.55
16:10 +6’	2.50▼	3.40	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +468’	2.50	3.62	2.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bournemouth 0–1–5 Brentford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 England Premier League	Bournemouth	0-0 HT 0-0	Brentford
27/12/25 England Premier League	Brentford	4-1 HT 2-0	Bournemouth
26/08/25 England EFL Cup	Bournemouth	0-2 HT 0-1	Brentford
15/03/25 England Premier League	Bournemouth	1-2 HT 1-1	Brentford
09/11/24 England Premier League	Brentford	3-2 HT 1-1	Bournemouth
11/05/24 England Premier League	Bournemouth	1-2 HT 0-0	Brentford

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	Hull	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Brentford	3	1	2	0	5	2	5
6	Liverpool	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
6	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
8	Everton	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Leeds	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
11	Man Utd	3	1	1	1	7	6	4
12	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
13	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
13	Ipswich	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
16	Nottm Forest	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
17	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	0	5	1
17	Tottenham	3	0	1	2	0	5	1
19	Fulham	3	0	0	3	4	7	0
20	Coventry	3	0	0	3	0	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bournemouth	Brentford
Everton	1-1 D	2-2 D
Man City	1-2 L	0-3 L
Fulham	1-0 W	0-0 D
Crystal Palace	3-0 W	2-2 D
Leeds	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bournemouth (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bournemouth

WWDWWDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Newcastle England Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
29/08	Everton England Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
23/08	Man City England Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/05	Nottm Forest England Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
19/05	Man City England Premier League	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
09/05	Fulham England Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
03/05	Crystal Palace England Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
22/04	Leeds England Premier League	0-0	2-2	12	3	D
18/04	Newcastle England Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/04	Arsenal England Premier League	1-1	2-1	1	4	W

Brentford

DDLWLDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sunderland England Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
30/08	Leeds England Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Tottenham England Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
24/05	Liverpool England Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Crystal Palace England Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
09/05	Man City England Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
02/05	West Ham England Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
27/04	Man Utd England Premier League	0-2	1-2	8	6	L
18/04	Fulham England Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
11/04	Everton England Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Brentford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bournemouth win (38%). Probabilities: Bournemouth 38%, draw 26%, Brentford 36%.

How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Brentford?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Bournemouth 1.66 · Brentford 1.62), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.