Football · England Premier League · 06/09, 17:30
Prediction: Arsenal vs Chelsea
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Arsenal1.93
Chelsea1.11
1X2
Arsenal
Draw
Chelsea
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Arsenal
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Chelsea
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arsenal
4–2–0
Chelsea
(6 last)
- Arsenal2-1Chelsea
- Arsenal1-0Chelsea
- Chelsea2-3Arsenal
- Chelsea1-1Arsenal
- Arsenal1-0Chelsea
- Chelsea1-1Arsenal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arsenal 1588 · Chelsea 1494
| Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1588 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Arsenal: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arsenal | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal 4–2–0 Chelsea
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chelsea |
| 03/02/26 England EFL Cup | Arsenal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chelsea |
| 14/01/26 England EFL Cup | Chelsea | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 30/11/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
| 16/03/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Chelsea |
| 10/11/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Hull | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Leeds | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Man Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Man City | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Everton | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Brighton | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Man City England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 04/03 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Fulham England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 19/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Everton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal win (55%). Probabilities: Arsenal 55%, draw 25%, Chelsea 20%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Arsenal 1.93 · Chelsea 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.