Football · England Premier League · 06/09, 15:00
Prediction: Everton vs Man Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Everton1.23
Man Utd1.5
1X2
Everton
Draw
Man Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Everton
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Man Utd
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Everton
1–2–3
Man Utd
(6 last)
- Everton0-1Man Utd
- Man Utd0-1Everton
- Man Utd2-2Everton
- Everton2-2Man Utd
- Man Utd4-0Everton
- Man Utd2-0Everton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Everton 1522 · Man Utd 1553
| Everton | Draw | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Man Utd: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Everton | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Everton 1–2–3 Man Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 England Premier League | Everton | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 24/11/25 England Premier League | Man Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Everton |
| 03/08/25 Elite Club Friendlies | Man Utd | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Everton |
| 22/02/25 England Premier League | Everton | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Man Utd |
| 01/12/24 England Premier League | Man Utd | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Everton |
| 09/03/24 England Premier League | Man Utd | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Everton |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Hull | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Leeds | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Man Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Coventry | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Everton | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Sunderland | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Liverpool | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Chelsea | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man Utd (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Everton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 04/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 20/03 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Everton vs Man Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man Utd win (42%). Probabilities: Everton 30%, draw 28%, Man Utd 42%.
How many goals are expected in Everton vs Man Utd?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Everton 1.23 · Man Utd 1.5), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Man Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.