Football · Bulgaria First League · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Team pages: Spartak Varna · Ludogorets Razgrad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Spartak Varna0.63

Ludogorets Razgrad1.8

1X2

12% 23% 65%

Spartak Varna Draw Ludogorets Razgrad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Varna 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWLLL

Ludogorets Razgrad 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Spartak Varna 0–1–5 Ludogorets Razgrad (6 last)

Spartak Varna1-5Ludogorets Razgrad
Ludogorets Razgrad1-1Spartak Varna
Ludogorets Razgrad2-1Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna1-3Ludogorets Razgrad
Ludogorets Razgrad2-1Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna1-2Ludogorets Razgrad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1490 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1578

	Spartak Varna	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
Our model	11%	24%	65%
Market	12%	22%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad (rating 1490 vs 1578).
H2H favours Ludogorets Razgrad: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Varna	Ludogorets Razgrad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.20

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +1’	7.50	4.20	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 0–1–5 Ludogorets Razgrad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-5 HT 0-1	Ludogorets Razgrad
18/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Ludogorets Razgrad	1-1 HT 0-1	Spartak Varna
19/04/25 Bulgaria First League	Ludogorets Razgrad	2-1 HT 1-0	Spartak Varna
10/11/24 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-3 HT 1-1	Ludogorets Razgrad
04/04/23 Bulgaria Cup	Ludogorets Razgrad	2-1 HT 1-1	Spartak Varna
11/02/23 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	1-2 HT 0-2	Ludogorets Razgrad

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ludogorets Razgrad	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
2	Levski Sofia	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
3	CSKA Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
5	Arda Kardzhali	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Botev Plovdiv	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
7	Spartak Varna	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
8	Slavia Sofia	5	1	3	1	5	3	6
9	Cherno More Varna	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
10	Septemvri Sofia	5	1	1	3	3	9	4
11	Dunav Ruse	6	1	0	5	5	12	3
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	5	1	0	4	3	7	3
13	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5	0	2	3	5	10	2
14	Botev Vratsa	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Varna	Ludogorets Razgrad
Levski Sofia	0-6 L	1-1 D
Botev Plovdiv	2-3 L	2-0 W
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-0 W	1-0 W
Cherno More Varna	3-0 W	3-2 W
CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-2 D	0-1 L
Slavia Sofia	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Varna (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Varna

WLWWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
17/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-3	2-3	1	2	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
26/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
17/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
22/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
18/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
14/05	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	7	8	L
10/05	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W

Ludogorets Razgrad

DLWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
15/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
09/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
02/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
27/07	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
18/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/05	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	10	5	D
25/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
16/05	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
13/05	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ludogorets Razgrad win (65%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 12%, draw 23%, Ludogorets Razgrad 65%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Spartak Varna 0.63 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.