Football · Bulgaria First League · 05/09, 20:15

Prediction: Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Team pages: Levski Sofia · CSKA 1948 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Levski Sofia1.61

CSKA 1948 Sofia0.79

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Levski Sofia Draw CSKA 1948 Sofia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Levski Sofia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWWWW

CSKA 1948 Sofia 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Levski Sofia 5–1–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia (6 last)

CSKA 1948 Sofia0-0Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia1-0CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia1-3Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia2-1CSKA 1948 Sofia
Levski Sofia2-0CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-4Levski Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1627 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1533

	Levski Sofia	Draw	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1627 vs 1533).
H2H favours Levski Sofia: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levski Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.4	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +13’	1.61	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 5–1–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Levski Sofia
02/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Levski Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
22/02/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-3 HT 1-1	Levski Sofia
31/08/25 Bulgaria First League	Levski Sofia	2-1 HT 2-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
03/04/25 Bulgaria First League	Levski Sofia	2-0 HT 2-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
15/09/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-4 HT 1-2	Levski Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA 1948 Sofia	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Ludogorets Razgrad	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
3	Levski Sofia	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
4	CSKA Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
5	Arda Kardzhali	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
6	Septemvri Sofia	7	2	2	3	5	10	8
7	Botev Plovdiv	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
8	Slavia Sofia	6	1	4	1	6	4	7
9	Spartak Varna	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
10	Cherno More Varna	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
11	Botev Vratsa	6	1	1	4	4	13	4
12	Dunav Ruse	6	1	0	5	5	12	3
13	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	7	1	0	6	3	10	3
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5	0	2	3	5	10	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levski Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Spartak Varna	6-0 W	2-2 D
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 W	2-0 W
Septemvri Sofia	3-0 W	0-1 L
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	2-1 W	3-1 W
CSKA Sofia	2-0 W	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levski Sofia

WLDWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	2-0	6-0	7	2	W
07/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
25/07	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
17/07	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	9	1	W
25/05	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
13/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
09/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
02/05	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

CSKA 1948 Sofia

DWDDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
23/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
14/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
08/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	5	5	W
31/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
17/07	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
25/05	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
13/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (56%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 56%, draw 26%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 18%.

How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Levski Sofia 1.61 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.79), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.