Football · Bulgaria First League · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · Botev Vratsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Septemvri Sofia1.14

Botev Vratsa0.95

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Septemvri Sofia Draw Botev Vratsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWWD

Botev Vratsa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 0–3–3 Botev Vratsa (6 last)

Botev Vratsa1-1Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia0-0Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa2-1Septemvri Sofia
Botev Vratsa3-2Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia2-2Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa2-0Septemvri Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1517 · Botev Vratsa 1517

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	Botev Vratsa
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botev Vratsa: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	Botev Vratsa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.9	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +25’	2.30	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 0–3–3 Botev Vratsa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	1-1 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia
06/04/26 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Botev Vratsa
25/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	2-1 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia
02/05/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	3-2 HT 2-0	Septemvri Sofia
08/02/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-2 HT 1-0	Botev Vratsa
19/08/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	2-0 HT 2-0	Septemvri Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA 1948 Sofia	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Ludogorets Razgrad	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
3	Levski Sofia	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
4	CSKA Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
5	Arda Kardzhali	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
6	Septemvri Sofia	7	2	2	3	5	10	8
7	Botev Plovdiv	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
8	Slavia Sofia	6	1	4	1	6	4	7
9	Spartak Varna	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
10	Cherno More Varna	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
11	Botev Vratsa	6	1	1	4	4	13	4
12	Dunav Ruse	6	1	0	5	5	12	3
13	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	7	1	0	6	3	10	3
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5	0	2	3	5	10	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Septemvri Sofia	Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia	1-1 D	0-3 L
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-0 W	1-2 L
CSKA Sofia	0-3 L	0-5 L
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	1-1 D	2-1 W
Beroe	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Septemvri Sofia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Septemvri Sofia

WWDDLLLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
23/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
01/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L
26/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	15	D
18/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/05	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	5	8	W

Botev Vratsa

DWWWDLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
16/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-5	5	5	L
10/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
02/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
25/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
22/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
18/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
14/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Septemvri Sofia win (39%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 39%, draw 31%, Botev Vratsa 30%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Septemvri Sofia 1.14 · Botev Vratsa 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.