Football · Bulgaria First League · 04/09, 20:15

Prediction: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv

Team pages: Arda Kardzhali · Botev Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Arda Kardzhali1.32

Botev Plovdiv0.87

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Arda Kardzhali Draw Botev Plovdiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Arda Kardzhali 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWWW

Botev Plovdiv 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Arda Kardzhali 2–2–2 Botev Plovdiv (6 last)

Botev Plovdiv2-1Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv1-2Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali0-2Botev Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali0-0Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv0-5Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv1-1Arda Kardzhali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arda Kardzhali 1535 · Botev Plovdiv 1507

	Arda Kardzhali	Draw	Botev Plovdiv
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arda Kardzhali	Botev Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:27 +8’	1.95	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arda Kardzhali 2–2–2 Botev Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Botev Plovdiv	2-1	Arda Kardzhali
12/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	1-2 HT 0-0	Arda Kardzhali
26/04/26 Bulgaria First League	Arda Kardzhali	0-2 HT 0-1	Botev Plovdiv
02/12/25 Bulgaria First League	Arda Kardzhali	0-0 HT 0-0	Botev Plovdiv
04/08/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	0-5 HT 0-2	Arda Kardzhali
09/03/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	1-1 HT 1-0	Arda Kardzhali

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA 1948 Sofia	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Ludogorets Razgrad	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
3	Levski Sofia	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
4	CSKA Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
5	Arda Kardzhali	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
6	Septemvri Sofia	7	2	2	3	5	10	8
7	Botev Plovdiv	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
8	Slavia Sofia	6	1	4	1	6	4	7
9	Spartak Varna	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
10	Cherno More Varna	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
11	Botev Vratsa	6	1	1	4	4	13	4
12	Dunav Ruse	6	1	0	5	5	12	3
13	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	7	1	0	6	3	10	3
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5	0	2	3	5	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arda Kardzhali	Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-0 W	1-2 L
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	3-1 W	0-0 D
Cherno More Varna	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Arda Kardzhali (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arda Kardzhali

LWWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
24/07	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
18/07	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/05	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	3-2	3	2	W
16/05	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
12/05	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
08/05	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-2	7	6	L

Botev Plovdiv

LLWLDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
10/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
01/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
27/07	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
20/07	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
25/05	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
16/05	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
12/05	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
09/05	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arda Kardzhali win (47%). Probabilities: Arda Kardzhali 47%, draw 29%, Botev Plovdiv 24%.

How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Arda Kardzhali 1.32 · Botev Plovdiv 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.