Football · Bulgaria First League · 06/09, 20:15
Prediction: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Team pages: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia · Ludogorets Razgrad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.76
Ludogorets Razgrad1.76
1X2
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Draw
Ludogorets Razgrad
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Ludogorets Razgrad
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
0–1–5
Ludogorets Razgrad
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-3Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad0-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-2Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad2-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Ludogorets Razgrad6-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-3Ludogorets Razgrad
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1456 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1577
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad (rating 1456 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Ludogorets Razgrad: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.2 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0–1–5 Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 17/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 09/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 21/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 16/03/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 24/09/23 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Botev Plovdiv | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Ludogorets Razgrad |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Levski Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ludogorets Razgrad (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 22/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 15/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 13/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ludogorets Razgrad win (61%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 15%, draw 24%, Ludogorets Razgrad 61%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.76 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1.76), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.