Football · Bulgaria First League · 05/09, 18:00
Prediction: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
Team pages: Spartak Varna · CSKA Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Spartak Varna0.7
CSKA Sofia1.89
1X2
Spartak Varna
Draw
CSKA Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Spartak Varna
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartak Varna
0–1–5
CSKA Sofia
(6 last)
- Spartak Varna0-4CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia1-1Spartak Varna
- CSKA Sofia5-0Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna0-1CSKA Sofia
- Spartak Varna2-3CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia3-1Spartak Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1479 · CSKA Sofia 1537
| Spartak Varna | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Market | 13% | 21% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1479 vs 1537).
- H2H favours CSKA Sofia: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spartak Varna | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 3.2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 0–1–5 CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 0-4 HT 0-2 | CSKA Sofia |
| 26/07/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 13/05/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 26/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 15/12/24 Bulgaria Cup | Spartak Varna | 2-3 HT 2-2 | CSKA Sofia |
| 03/12/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spartak Varna | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 0-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Septemvri Sofia | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Slavia Sofia | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartak Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 10 | W |
| 26/07 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia win (65%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 13%, draw 22%, CSKA Sofia 65%.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Spartak Varna 0.7 · CSKA Sofia 1.89), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.